Priced like the old business, running like a new one: management is redirecting the call away from the metric investors
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2023 call → NOThe question asks whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional yardstick toward a different part of the business that is already earning today, and indicates that the record has not caught up. Let me analyze the transcript. The company is IceCure Medical, a medical device company. The conventional yardstick would be their overall revenue, or perhaps their FDA approval status for breast cancer indication. The company's main story has been about getting FDA approval for ProSense for early-stage low-risk breast cancer. Looking at the call, management discusses: - FDA appeal process for De Novo classification - ICE3 study results - Regulatory approvals in Brazil, Canada - Sales of ProSense systems and disposable probes - Independent studies being conducted - Commercial expansion The conventional yardstick here seems to be the FDA approval for breast cancer, which was denied. Management discusses the appeal and the study. But is there a different part of the business that is already earning that management redirects attention to? Management talks about: - ProSense systems and disposable probe sales increasing 11% - Independent studies - Commercial distribution expansion - New distributors in Portugal, India - Sales in China, Japan However, the overall revenue actually decreased due to the end of the Terumo agreement. The gross margin decreased. Management does discuss the FDA denial and the appeal, but they also discuss the ongoing sales and commercial activities. But do they set aside the conventional yardstick? The conventional yardstick for this company might be the FDA approval for breast cancer, or it might be overall revenue. Actually, looking more carefully, the company's main product is ProSense, and the FDA approval for breast cancer is a key milestone. The denial of the De Novo request is a setback. Management discusses the appeal and the study timeline. But the question is about redirecting attention to a different part of the business that is already earning. Management does discuss sales growth in systems and disposables, and independent studies, and commercial expansion. But they don't really set aside the conventional yardstick - they still discuss the FDA process extensively, the study, etc. The revenue actually declined. The company is still losing money.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAH | Noah Holdings Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-30 | D |
| DUOT | Duos Technologies Group, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-04-01 | F |
| OPAD | Offerpad Solutions Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| PRPH | ProPhase Labs, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-11 | F |
| CALX | Calix, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-04-20 | C+ |
| WD | Walker & Dunlop, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| LC | LendingClub Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-26 | A |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| LPTH | LightPath Technologies, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2021-09-09 | D |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-25 | C+ |
SPT · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional measure toward a different part of the business that's already earning today, and indicates that this diffe...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly reframing away from the conventional total ARR/revenue growth metric (which is being distorted by unpredictable low-end non-core ARR) toward the higher-quality up-market/enterprise segment that is already delivering record new business ACVs, 50%+ YoY growth, and 43% of 2023 ARR. They explicitly set the low-end aside by removing it from forecasts and modeling to give “greatest visibility,” note that Q2 ARR growth will be the lowest pace of the year because of this change, and indicate the reported figures still reflect the old mix while the new up-market story is already earning today (with Tagger adding further upside not yet reflected). This creates the coherent posture of redirecting attention from the headline growth number outsiders watch to the part of the business that is already producing real results.
WD · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional measure to a different part of the business that's already earning today, and indicates that this isn...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly reframing the discussion away from the conventional multifamily agency lender yardstick (origination volumes, GSE lending, MSR-driven EPS) toward the diversified services and asset-management businesses that are already generating substantial cash revenue and EBITDA today. They explicitly set the old metric aside by introducing adjusted EPS to “strip out non-cash mortgage servicing rights,” highlight the shift from “lending-centric” to “broader technology-enabled financial services,” and note that segment results now provide “more transparency into our operating structure.” They point to debt brokerage, property sales, SAM (Alliant, Zelman), small-balance lending, and appraisals as the new earning engines, describing their concrete contributions (e.g.
CALX · Q1 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional measure to a different part of the business that's already earning today, and indicates that this isn...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly framing the company as operating in a "new market" centered on platforms, clouds, and managed services—distinct from the legacy hardware/cyclical model—while highlighting real earnings from these areas (e.g., 988 BSPs deploying platforms, 865 cloud customers, 334 with 41 new managed services in Q1, record Intelligent Access EDGE revenue). They indicate this is already producing revenue and customer adoption but remains early-stage ("this is the beginning," "early stage of where we are in this new market"), with reported results still reflecting the prior hardware-focused picture.