Priced like the old business, running like a new one: management is redirecting the call away from the metric investors
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2017 call → NOWe need to determine if management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional yardstick and toward a different part of the business that is already earning, and indicates the record hasn't caught up. Let's analyze the transcript. The call is about Q3 2017 results. Management discusses various topics: China strategy, price vs cost, natural disasters, etc. The conventional yardstick for Ingersoll-Rand would be overall revenue, EPS, margins, perhaps the Climate segment or Industrial segment. But the question is about redirecting attention away from the measure or storyline by which the company is conventionally judged. What is the conventional storyline? Possibly the company's overall margin expansion, or the traditional HVAC business in North America, or the price-cost spread. Management repeatedly discusses the impact of China and Middle East on price-cost, and says that the negative price-cost spread is largely due to China penetration. They emphasize that China is a growth strategy, that it's accretive to EPS, and that the impact is temporary. They also talk about productivity initiatives for 2018. But does management set aside the conventional yardstick? They talk about "operating leverage" being a concern, and they say they are not satisfied with it. They also say that the impact of China is a mix issue, not price. They say "we've kept the designation in price consistent for all of 2017, but I believe it is worth noting this distinction as it has a pronounced impact in how our price versus cost spread shows up in the bridge." So they are explaining that the conventional measure (price vs cost) is being distorted by mix. But is there a different part of the business that is already earning and that they want attention on? They talk about China as a growth area, but it's not a separate part of the business; it's a geography within Climate. They also talk about the Industrial segment performing well. But the question is about redirecting attention away from the conventional yardstick to a different part that is already earning. The conventional yardstick might be the overall company's margin expansion or the traditional North American HVAC market. Management is saying that the negative price-cost is due to China, which is a growth strategy, and that they expect improvement.
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