Priced like the old business, running like a new one: management is redirecting the call away from the metric investors
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2024 call → NOWe need to determine if management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional yardstick to a different part of the business that is already earning, and indicates the record hasn't caught up. Let's analyze the transcript. The call is about Q2 2024 earnings. Management discusses segments: Transportation, Sulfur Services, Terminalling and Storage, Specialty Products. They also discuss ELSA project, which is a joint venture with Dongjin, Samsung. They mention a ribbon cutting for DSM Semichem plant. The question: Does management repeatedly redirect attention away from the measure or storyline by which the company is conventionally judged and toward a different part of the business that it says is already earning today? And does management indicate that this different part is not yet what the company's reported results or outside understanding reflect? We need to see if management sets aside the conventional yardstick. What is the conventional yardstick for MMLP? Likely adjusted EBITDA, or maybe the overall results. But the question is about a specific part of the business that is already earning but not yet reflected in the numbers. Look for management saying something like "the thing you usually watch is no longer the right thing" or "we want you to focus on this new part that is already making money but not yet in our results." In the transcript, management discusses each segment's performance. They talk about ELSA project, which is a new venture. They mention that the oleum tower will be completed, and they will begin shipping, and the venture will start processing and testing. They expect sales in Q4 and early 2025. So ELSA is not yet earning? Actually, they say "we anticipate beginning to ship them with speeds -- the stock in the middle of the OEM in the middle of August." And then "the also plant venture will begin their processing and testing and qualification with potential customers." So it's not yet earning revenue. They expect $0.9 million EBITDA in Q4 from reservation fees. So it's prospective. But the question is about a part that is ALREADY EARNING. So maybe not ELSA. Look for management redirecting to a different part. They talk about land transportation being strong, but that's a segment. They talk about sulfur services, etc. But they don't seem to set aside the conventional yardstick.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAH | Noah Holdings Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-30 | D |
| DUOT | Duos Technologies Group, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-04-01 | F |
| OPAD | Offerpad Solutions Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| PRPH | ProPhase Labs, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-11 | F |
| CALX | Calix, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-04-20 | C+ |
| WD | Walker & Dunlop, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| LC | LendingClub Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-26 | A |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| LPTH | LightPath Technologies, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2021-09-09 | D |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-25 | C+ |
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