Priced like the old business, running like a new one: management is redirecting the call away from the metric investors
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional yardstick and toward a different part of the business that is already earning, and indicates the record hasn't caught up. The company is OUTFRONT Media, an out-of-home advertising company. The conventional yardstick likely is revenue or OIBDA or AFFO? But the question is about a different part of the business that is already earning but not yet reflected in reported results. In the transcript, management discusses various things: digital revenue, automated sales platform, programmatic, etc. They highlight digital revenue growth, automated channels, and also the sale of Canadian business. But is there a specific part that they say is already earning but not yet reflected? They talk about digital revenue being 36% of total, up from 33%. They talk about automated sales platform comprising 16% of digital revenues. They talk about the MTA deployment. But do they set aside the conventional yardstick? The conventional yardstick for a media company might be total revenue or OIBDA. They don't seem to say "don't look at revenue, look at digital" or something like that. They are discussing results normally. They do mention that they expect 2024 to be a significantly improved year. They talk about tailwinds. But they don't explicitly say that the old metric is no longer the right thing to watch. They do highlight digital as a growth driver, but they also discuss billboard and transit. They don't set aside the conventional measure. They also talk about the sale of Canada, but that's a divestiture, not a new earning part. The question asks: "does management REPEATEDLY REDIRECT ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE MEASURE OR STORYLINE BY WHICH THE COMPANY IS CONVENTIONALLY JUDGED and toward a DIFFERENT PART OF THE BUSINESS that it says is ALREADY EARNING TODAY — and does management indicate that this different part is not yet what the company's reported results or outside understanding reflect?" I need to see if they identify a conventional yardstick and set it aside. They don't seem to. They talk about revenue growth, OIBDA, AFFO. They don't say "don't look at revenue, look at digital revenue" or something. They do highlight digital as a growing part, but they don't say that the old way of measuring is obsolete. They also talk about the MTA deployment, but that's a capital project.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAH | Noah Holdings Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-30 | D |
| DUOT | Duos Technologies Group, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-04-01 | F |
| OPAD | Offerpad Solutions Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| PRPH | ProPhase Labs, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-11 | F |
| CALX | Calix, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-04-20 | C+ |
| WD | Walker & Dunlop, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| LC | LendingClub Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-26 | A |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| LPTH | LightPath Technologies, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2021-09-09 | D |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-25 | C+ |
SPT · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional measure toward a different part of the business that's already earning today, and indicates that this diffe...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly reframing away from the conventional total ARR/revenue growth metric (which is being distorted by unpredictable low-end non-core ARR) toward the higher-quality up-market/enterprise segment that is already delivering record new business ACVs, 50%+ YoY growth, and 43% of 2023 ARR. They explicitly set the low-end aside by removing it from forecasts and modeling to give “greatest visibility,” note that Q2 ARR growth will be the lowest pace of the year because of this change, and indicate the reported figures still reflect the old mix while the new up-market story is already earning today (with Tagger adding further upside not yet reflected). This creates the coherent posture of redirecting attention from the headline growth number outsiders watch to the part of the business that is already producing real results.
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