Reporting the counterparty's growth as its own: management explains the company's coming year by narrating what its cust
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management explains where the company's business is going by narrating what its counterparties are themselves doing and scaling. The key is whether management's forward account is substantially about the growth, expansion, ramp, adoption, or program build-out of specific customers, partners, licensees, etc., that the company already supplies or serves, such that the company's own coming volume is a consequence of those parties' trajectories. Let's analyze the transcript. Ted Karkus, CEO, speaks about various subsidiaries: manufacturing facility, Nebula Genomics, esophageal cancer test, Linebacker, CLIA lab, etc. He mentions that the manufacturing facility is at capacity with enormous demand. He says: "We have brands, some of the largest brands in the world are coming to us and want us to do their manufacturing, some of them want us to do all of their manufacturing, not only in the United States but globally." He talks about demand for at least $25 million of revenues next year, constrained by capacity. He says "revenues are running up almost a 100% year over year." But is he narrating what those brands are doing? He mentions "one of the largest brands in the world that's located in another country, that's very interested in us manufacturing the lozenges, not just in the United States but potentially around the world." That is a specific counterparty, but he doesn't describe their own ramp or expansion. He just says they want us to manufacture. He doesn't describe their own growth trajectory. He says "supply chain issues in the lozenges business" and that they are coming to us. But he doesn't narrate what those brands are themselves doing (e.g., their own store rollouts, product launches, capacity expansions). He just says they want us to do manufacturing. That is more about demand from customers, not about narrating their own trajectories. For Nebula Genomics, he talks about building a B2B business, but he doesn't describe specific counterparties' own growth. He mentions "several of the major drug retailers are doing tests right now" and that they might get on store shelves. But he doesn't describe those retailers' own expansion plans. He says "we are only selling direct to consumers" and "we are looking to leverage this business." He doesn't narrate what the retailers are doing.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMKR | EMCORE Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2023-12-12 | C+ |
| MBLY | Mobileye Global Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-28 | B+ |
| PI | Impinj, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-08 | B+ |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| OOMA | Ooma, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2021-12-02 | B+ |
| ILMN | Illumina, Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | A |
| PLAB | Photronics, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-05-17 | C+ |
| IONS | Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-09 | C |
| FNV | Franco-Nevada Corporation | Q3 2016 | 2016-11-08 | B+ |
| HXL | Hexcel Corporation | Q4 2015 | 2016-01-22 | B+ |
OOMA · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management narrates what its counterparties are doing and scaling, presenting the company's future volume as a consequence of those parties' trajectories.
MBLY · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management narrates what its counterparties are doing and scaling, presenting the company's volume as a consequence of those parties' trajectories.
ILMN · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management narrates what its counterparties are doing and scaling, presenting the company's future as a consequence of those parties' trajectories.