Reporting the counterparty's growth as its own: management explains the company's coming year by narrating what its cust
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2016 call → NOWe need to determine if management's forward account is substantially about narrating what its counterparties are themselves doing and scaling, with the company already inside that growth, and the trajectory early and large. Key points from the call: - Management discusses the U.S. Coast Guard as a major upcoming agency under the DHS BPA. They say they are awaiting a national task order, have been actively engaged, and expect it "weeks away." They mention Phase I could add in excess of $10 million in 2017, and additional phases could make it the largest client. This is about a counterparty (Coast Guard) that is about to come on board, but it's not yet contracted? They say "we are still awaiting our national task order" and "we have been actively engaged... preparing for the past quarter release, and we are confident that it is only weeks away." So it's not yet a current customer? They are bidding/awaiting award. That does not satisfy "already inside that growth" because it's not yet flowing. They say "if everything rolls out as has been planned" - so it's contingent. So that's not a present-tense reality of already supplying. - They discuss AT&T as an Internet of Things partner. They say AT&T will utilize their cert on device technology as designated security solution. AT&T is funding integration and marketing. AT&T has accelerated rollout to April launch. This is a counterparty that is scaling, but is the company already inside? They say "our expanded relationship with AT&T" and "AT&T will utilize our cert on device technology" - but is it already in use? They say "AT&T has made IOT a major corporate directional focus" and "AT&T is funding the integration" - so it's in development, not yet launched. They mention "most recently AT&T has accelerated its planned rollout of this program for mid-2017 to an April launch." So it's not yet generating revenue. They don't say they are already supplying. So that's not current activity. - They mention other partners like Samsung, HP, LG, but those are just "we continue to jointly target" - so prospects. - They mention the DHS BPA and that they have generated over $150 million in revenue under the $600 million BPA umbrella. That is current, but the BPA is a contract vehicle, not a counterparty's own trajectory. They talk about revenue mix swinging to higher margin managed services, but that's about their own mix.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMKR | EMCORE Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2023-12-12 | C+ |
| MBLY | Mobileye Global Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-28 | B+ |
| PI | Impinj, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-08 | B+ |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| OOMA | Ooma, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2021-12-02 | B+ |
| ILMN | Illumina, Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | A |
| PLAB | Photronics, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-05-17 | C+ |
| IONS | Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-09 | C |
| FNV | Franco-Nevada Corporation | Q3 2016 | 2016-11-08 | B+ |
| HXL | Hexcel Corporation | Q4 2015 | 2016-01-22 | B+ |
OOMA · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management narrates what its counterparties are doing and scaling, presenting the company's future volume as a consequence of those parties' trajectories.
MBLY · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management narrates what its counterparties are doing and scaling, presenting the company's volume as a consequence of those parties' trajectories.
ILMN · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management narrates what its counterparties are doing and scaling, presenting the company's future as a consequence of those parties' trajectories.