Scarcity premium: the thing the company sells is becoming harder to get, and management is letting the shortage do the s
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that what the company sells is becoming harder for buyers to obtain, and that management is allowing that tightening to work in its favor. The transcript discusses various products: fixed annuities, fixed index annuities, group retirement, life insurance, institutional markets. The key part is about fixed annuities and surrenders. Management discusses higher surrenders due to higher rates, but also strong sales. They say surrenders are higher but lower than expected, and they manage crediting rates. They talk about being disciplined, balancing competitiveness and margin growth. They mention that they have the liquidity to support surrenders, and they make economic decisions about whether to accept surrenders and replace with new business at higher margins. They say "we remain disciplined, effectively balancing competitiveness and margin growth." They also say "we are not dependent upon a single product or distribution channel. We remain nimble and we'll pursue profitable growth by focusing on areas where risk-adjusted returns are the most attractive." This suggests they are being selective about which business to take, but does it convey that availability is tightening? They talk about strong sales and positive net flows. They don't say that buyers are finding it harder to obtain their products. They mention that they are managing crediting rates, which could be seen as holding price (i.e., not raising crediting rates as much as possible to attract more business). But the question is about availability tightening relative to demand. They don't say that they are limiting supply or that customers have to wait. They say they have strong sales and are growing. They also mention that they are focusing on areas where risk-adjusted returns are most attractive, which implies selectivity, but not necessarily scarcity. The transcript also discusses the overall environment: "we saw some of the best conditions in recent memory" for fixed annuities. They are selling a lot. There is no indication that they are rationing or that buyers are competing for limited capacity. They mention that they are disciplined, but that's about not overpaying for business, not about scarcity.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRA | ProAssurance Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-11 | D |
| AES | The AES Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-03 | C+ |
| PDS | Precision Drilling Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-25 | B |
| LEGH | Legacy Housing Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-18 | C |
| ALL | The Allstate Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | C+ |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-13 | A |
| UAL | United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-01-18 | B |
| STM | STMicroelectronics NV | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-24 | C+ |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-03 | B+ |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | B |
| RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-02 | C+ |
| HPP | Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. | Q4 2015 | 2016-02-25 | C |
LEGH · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management explicitly holding production levels steady to build backlog rather than ramping output, while continuing to hold pricing levels. Duncan Bates states: “We have held pricing levels and held production levels as we continue to build a backlog across the manufacturing plants” and later “we decided, hey, let's keep production where it is and keep building the backlog.
STM · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management describing current shortages and a "stretched supply chain" for their own products (especially Automotive and Power Discrete), with backlogs confirming demand outrunning availability. They explicitly note pricing upside from the fractured supply situation in Power and treat the tightness as a positive dynamic rather than an urgent problem to fix.
ALL · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management explicitly restricting new business growth in unprofitable states (California, New York, New Jersey down 75% in new applications) and describing this as part of the profit improvement plan that is working in their favor by improving margins and allowing selective removal of restrictions only where target returns are achieved.