Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks: does management convey that deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago? We need to look for any statement in the transcript that indicates an escalation in unit size of repeatable business. The transcript discusses portfolio activity, new investments, pipeline, etc. But we need to see if management explicitly says that the size of new deals is larger than before. Let's scan the transcript. Brad Marshall mentions: "First quarter sales and repayments were $109 million matched by $108 million in new investment commitments. The result of lower net origination was tied to both a seasonally slow period for new deal activity, as well as a lower -- overall level of deal volume as private equity sponsors selectively adjust to the new market and rate dynamics. That said, we are beginning to see more market activity, which may lead to an increase in portfolio turnover." This doesn't indicate larger deal sizes. Later, Teddy Desloge says: "To give some context for the pipeline, we have seen an increasing activity in recent weeks, both as it relates to new opportunities and portfolio activity where we retain incumbency, which represents a significant competitive advantage from our scale and presence in the market. We believe this represents a strong foundation for new originations for BXSL to the extent capacity increases from repayment volume or new share issuance." This is about activity, not size. Brad Marshall also mentions: "we have about $30 billion of assets in our pipeline right now." But that's pipeline, not necessarily larger deals. There is no mention of average deal size increasing, or that new deals are larger than historical ones. The focus is on volume, activity, and pipeline. No comparison of unit size. Thus, the answer is NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.