Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks about deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs. The transcript discusses restaurant openings, throughput, digital orders, etc. But does management say that each new instance of essentially the same business is worth more than the last? For example, are new restaurants larger in size? Or are new contracts bigger? The transcript talks about opening more restaurants, but not about individual restaurant size increasing. It talks about throughput improvements, but that's operational efficiency, not deal size. It mentions Carne Asada as a limited time offer, but that's a product, not a deal size. The question is about the unit size of the company's own repeatable business escalating. For Chipotle, the repeatable business is opening restaurants. Are they opening larger restaurants? No, they are opening more restaurants, but the size of each restaurant is not described as increasing. They mention Chipotlanes, but that's a format, not necessarily larger. They talk about international expansion, but not about larger individual sites. They mention that they are on track to open 255-285 this year, and 285-315 next year, but that's more units, not larger units. The question specifically asks: "does management convey that the deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago?" There is no mention of individual restaurant size increasing. They talk about throughput improvements, but that's about serving more customers per restaurant, not about the size of the restaurant itself. They talk about digital orders, but not about larger orders. They talk about average unit volumes, but not about new restaurants having higher AUVs than previous ones. In fact, they mention that Chipotlane volumes have gotten closer to non-Chipotlane, but that's not about escalation. They also mention that they are opening more restaurants, but that's volume, not size. The question also says: "Answer YES when management's own words convey... the unit size of the company's own repeatable business is escalating." There is no such statement.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.