Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2016 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. Look for comparisons against own past, real and recurring, early stage. In the transcript, there is a question about Oak Street: "you mentioned that you could potentially start to move up market in terms of size of the deals that they do, which could potentially have some impact on yields. I know it's still relatively early but just any comments on the average size in yields that you have seen there and whether you have started to kind of go up market at all?" Claude Davis responds: "Yes. I would say in their core insurance business, we have seen a couple of bigger deals since we closed the deal and as you get with strong borrowers that are of larger size, they maybe at lower margins than what the core business is. But I would say the bulk of their originations have been consistent with what they were originating pre-transaction. And so yields have been comparable. That said, Erik, I think we are seeing yield pressure on all the business lines and I think they will, Oak Tree will continue to see it as well. But I give that management team credit. They have been able to hold yields pretty strongly. Still realize the growth we expected. So at this point, kind of nothing material or significant but I would expect that as we do bigger deals, that on those specific relationships you will see lower yields than what their overall portfolio is at." This indicates that they have seen a couple of bigger deals, but the bulk are consistent with pre-transaction. So it's not a clear pattern of escalation. Also, it's early, but they say "nothing material or significant" and "I would expect that as we do bigger deals" - that's future expectation, not current reality. So this is not a clear YES. Any other mention? The question about construction book: "it's grown very very rapidly over the last couple of years. So just curious about your comfort level and outlook for overall growth in the construction book." Claude Davis: "Yes, Scott. No, it has grown. And we, I would say started from a relatively low base as that didn’t really grow much coming out of the crisis until really the last year. Actually in the last couple of years it's grown.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.