Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2016 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks: does management describe that the company's successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size? That is, does management convey that the deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago, so that each new instance of essentially the same business is worth more to the company than the last? We need to look for evidence in the transcript. The transcript includes statements from George Zoley, Brian Evans, David Donahue, Ann Schlarb. They discuss various projects, activations, contracts, etc. We need to see if they mention that the size of new contracts or projects is escalating compared to past ones. Key points: They mention activation of several projects, e.g., 8,000 beds at five facilities, expansions, etc. But is there a comparison of size? For example, they mention Ravenhall facility in Australia, which is a large project. But is that presented as part of an upward drift? They also mention CAR 16, which is a rebid of several facilities. They mention new opportunities in Houston, Chicago, New Jersey, etc. But do they say that these are larger than previous ones? The question specifically asks about "successive engagements of the same kind" coming in at progressively larger size. For example, if they say that new contracts are larger than old ones, or that the average size of new deals has increased. I don't see such a statement. They talk about growth, but that could be from more volume or new projects. They mention that they have idle beds and are pursuing opportunities. But no explicit statement that the unit size of their business is escalating. They mention that they are pursuing opportunities totaling several thousand beds, but that's not necessarily larger than before. They also mention that they have a pipeline. But the question requires that management conveys a comparison against the company's own recent past, that it's already real and recurring, and that it's early. I don't see any such statement. For example, they might say "we are now signing contracts that are twice the size of what we used to sign" or something.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.