Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks: does management convey that deals/orders/contracts/projects/customers/sites/programs are individually bigger, broader, or longer than before for the same offering? We need to look for a comparison against the company's own recent past, already real and recurring, and early (i.e., not yet fully reflected in results). Let's review the transcript. Kyle Loudermilk and Emmett Pepe discuss new orders, backlog, etc. Key points: - New orders in Q1 2023 were $19.1 million, highest in nearly three years. Backlog $40.9 million, highest in over a year. - Performance Engineering orders increased 130% to $14.7 million vs $6.4 million in Q1 2022. - Major deal: renewal contract with two U.S. government engineering labs, five-year contract worth up to $28 million. They say "GSE has been under a series of service contracts with these laboratories for over 20 years, and this renewal is a testament to the strong relationships...". This is a renewal, but is it larger than previous? They don't explicitly say it's larger than previous contracts. They say "renewal contract that includes a meaningful expansion of services" - so expansion of services suggests broader scope. But is that a comparison to the company's own past? They say "meaningful expansion" but not explicitly that it's larger than previous contracts. However, they do say "renewal" and "expansion" - so it's a larger scope than before? Possibly. - Another win: upgrade of training simulators at Olkiluoto nuclear power plant in Finland, worth nearly $900,000. That's a specific project, not necessarily larger than past. - They talk about industry trends, but not about their own deal sizes escalating. - Emmett Pepe: "We are pleased with the progress that we are seeing in our order flow for the first quarter, which as Kyle has indicated, is the highest for the company in three years." That's about total orders, not average size. - They mention "new orders" and "backlog" but not that the average size of each order is increasing. - They talk about "Performance Engineering division continues to perform well" with revenues, but not about deal size. - They mention "software and support sales of $1.2 million up from roughly $400,000" - that's a revenue increase, not necessarily deal size.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.