Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes that successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks: does management convey that the deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago, so that each new instance of essentially the same business is worth more to the company than the last? We need to look for a comparison against the company's own recent past, already real and recurring, and early (i.e., not fully reflected yet, with more coming). In the transcript, management discusses leasing activity, development, acquisitions, etc. They talk about strong leasing volume, but do they mention that the size of individual deals is escalating? They mention that they signed 1.5 million square feet of new leases in 2022, the most since 2014. But that's volume, not necessarily size per deal. They also mention that the average lease size is under 15,000 square feet. They talk about expansions, but not about larger deals. They mention a 312,000 square foot renewal at a JV property, but that's a renewal, not a new engagement. They also mention backfilling Tivity space with a customer that will take space in 2024. They don't say that deals are getting bigger. They talk about development pipeline, but that's not about the size of leases. They mention that they are seeing a lot of small deals, and that large users have paused. So they are not seeing larger deals. Thus, management does not convey that the size of individual engagements is escalating. They are seeing more volume, but not larger unit size. They even say that the pipeline is a lot of smaller deals. Therefore, the answer is NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.