Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2017 call → NOWe need answer only YES or NO. Need determine if management describes successive engagements of same kind coming in at progressively larger size. Need parse transcript. We need look for statements about deals/orders/projects/customers/sites/programs individually bigger/broader/longer than before for same offering. Examples: SPINRAZA launch expanding sites? They mention 88 sites, 203 start forms, but not comparing size of engagements. Bayer collaboration expanded from IONIS-FXIRx to include IONIS-FXI-LRx with $75M. Is that same kind? They say "expands the opportunity for our FXI franchise" and "Bayer paid us $75 million to advance both IONIS-FXIRx and the LICA drug... This is important because it allows us to continue advancing the parent drug while expanding the collaboration by moving forward with the LICA drug which has a potential for a broader indication." This is expansion of collaboration to include another drug, but is that successive engagements of same kind coming in at progressively larger size? It's a follow-on commitment from same counterparty? Maybe not exactly "same kind" - it's a new drug, broader indication. But it is an expansion of collaboration. However, question asks about deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs landing now individually bigger, broader, or longer than ones before for same offering. The Bayer deal: they got $75M to advance both FXIRx and FXI-LRx. Previously? They had a collaboration with Bayer for IONIS-FXIRx? Need infer. They say "our partner, Bayer, paid us $75 million to advance both IONIS-FXIRx and the LICA drug, IONIS-FXI-LRx." This expands collaboration. Is that a larger deal than previous? Not explicitly compared. They don't say "this is larger than prior Bayer deals." They say "expanding the collaboration" and "potential for a broader indication." But no comparison against own past size. Novartis collaboration worth up to $1.6B plus royalties. Is that compared to past? No, it's new collaboration. Not necessarily same kind as prior? It's a collaboration with Novartis for AKCEA drugs. They received $175M. No mention of previous smaller deals. Volanesorsen? No. SPINRAZA launch: "Biogen has already been successful in streamlining access to treatment at the 40 to 50 SMA centers in the United States, with additional U.S. centers beyond these specialty centers now treating patients.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.