Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. Look for comparisons against own past, real and recurring, early stage. Transcript: Ryan mentions "second highest revenue quarter ever" but that's overall revenue. Cam talks about diversification: "In 2022, we achieved near triple-digit revenue growth year over year in this area... In the quarter, we were able to recognize revenue and receive new purchase orders, which could enable us to repeat year-over-year growth at nearly the same pace in 2023." That's about growth rate, not unit size. Cam: "We continue to find new opportunities... to retrofit legacy thermal appliances as well as support new construction." No mention of larger deals. Cam: "We have now supported the integration of over 85,000 burner management solutions" - cumulative. Cam: "We have successfully executed our strategy to increase our average revenue per BMS unit" - that's price increase, not size of engagements. Cam: "In the quarter, we fulfilled orders for various customers in mining and metal, landfill, food and beverage, and renewable natural gas production. In the quarter, we were able to receive repeat orders from one of the United States’ largest producers of renewable natural gas." Repeat orders but no mention of size. Cam: "Recently, we were invited to scope and assess potential upgrades of thermal appliances at a small batch refinery." That's small. Cam: "As a result of positive referrals received from an EPC who we collaborated with on a project in 2022, we have been introduced to several project opportunities which entail heat-treating processes for automotive and metallurgy coating." No size comparison. No mention of deals being larger than before. The only comparison is revenue growth and gross margin. No explicit statement about unit size escalation. Thus answer NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.