Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. The transcript is about Treace Medical, a medical device company. They sell Lapiplasty procedure kits and ancillary products. The question asks about "deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs" landing now being individually bigger, broader, or longer than before. We need to look for management's own words conveying that the unit size of their repeatable business is escalating. For example, average size of new orders, customers starting at higher level, etc. In the transcript, management discusses revenue growth, active surgeon base, utilization (kits per surgeon), average selling price (ASP), direct sales force expansion, new product innovations, etc. Key points: - Revenue increased 45% in Q2, 50% first half. - Active surgeon base reached 20% penetration, 2047 surgeons, up 37% YoY. - Surgeon utilization: 10.1 kits per surgeon in Q2, up from 9.8 a year ago. That's a slight increase. - Blended average selling price: $5,711, 5% growth over prior year due to uptake of newer innovations like Mini-Incision and Adductoplasty, and ancillary products. - They mention that direct sales reps generate higher surgeon utilization and higher blended ASPs. - They are expanding direct sales force, expect to exceed 150 reps. - They are launching new products like 3-in-1 guide, S4A plating system, etc. Does this convey that the individual size of what they land (e.g., per surgeon, per case) is escalating? The ASP per case is increasing, but that's partly due to price increases and product mix. The question asks about "deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs" being individually bigger. For a medical device company, the "unit" could be the size of a customer's commitment (e.g., a surgeon's usage) or the size of an order. They report kits per surgeon, which is utilization. That increased slightly from 9.8 to 10.1. That's a modest increase. They also mention that as surgeons mature, utilization grows over time. They say "we look forward to surgeon utilization gains" but that's future. They also mention that direct reps penetrate markets faster, generate higher utilization, and sell at higher ASPs.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.