Sizing the constraint out loud: management quantifies how much business its own limits are costing right now
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2017 call → NOWe need to determine if management put a size on the gap between what the company is doing and what it could be doing right now, due to an internal limit, with real present demand, and material. Look for statements where management quantifies unserved demand due to internal capacity constraints. In the transcript, Peter Kirlin says: "In fact, our facilities are running near full capacity as we exited the quarter. We anticipate this will continue even as we add capacity over the next several months." That's qualitative, no size. Later, Sean Smith says: "As Peter alluded to in his prepared remarks, we’re, we weren’t at full capacity, but it did ramp. April, we exited, we did about 25 million. We're targeting with the capacity that we have the 30 million. We stated in a previous call or last quarter conference call I believe, that with the new riders we should get up to hopefully 40 million over that per quarter." This is about FPD business. They exited at 25 million per quarter? Actually "we did about 25 million" likely refers to FPD sales in April? Or quarterly? They say "we exited, we did about 25 million" - probably FPD sales run rate? Then "targeting with the capacity that we have the 30 million" - meaning they could do 30 million with existing capacity? And with new tools, 40 million. So they are sizing the gap between current output (25 million) and what they could do with existing capacity (30 million) - that's a 5 million gap. But is that due to internal limit? They say "we weren't at full capacity, but it did ramp." So they are not at full capacity? Actually they exited at 25 million, but they have capacity to do 30 million? That suggests they could do 5 million more right now if they had demand? But they say "targeting with the capacity that we have the 30 million" - meaning they are targeting to reach 30 million using existing capacity, implying they are not there yet. But is that because of demand or internal? They say "we weren't at full capacity" - so they have spare capacity. So the gap is not due to internal limit; it's due to demand not being there yet. They are ramping up. They expect to get to 30 million with existing capacity, and then 40 million with new tools. That is prospective, not current unserved demand. They are not saying they have orders they can't fill. They are saying they are ramping up to fill capacity.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHF | WhiteHorse Finance, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-10 | B+ |
| AOSL | Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited | Q2 2018 | 2018-02-07 | B |
WHF · Q1 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management put a size on the gap between what the company is doing and what it could be doing right now? Specifically, a quantified statement about business not captured due to i...
AOSL · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is: Does management put a size on the gap between what the company is doing and what it could be doing right now? Specifically, a quantified statement about business they're currently not...
ESS · Q2 2018 → NOWe need to determine if management on this call sizes a gap between what the company is doing and what it could be doing right now due to an internal limit, with specific quantification. The question asks: "does management PUT A SIZE ON THE GAP BETWEEN WHAT THE COMPANY IS DOING AND WHAT IT COULD BE DOING RIGHT NOW — that is, does management volunteer a specific, quantified or explicitly sized statement about business the company is CURRENTLY NOT CAPTURING because of a limit inside the company, rather than because of a lack of demand?" We need to look for any instance where management quantifies a shortfall due to internal capacity, such as occupancy, supply, or ability to serve demand. The transcript discusses strong demand, occupancy strategy, supply constraints, etc. But we need to see if they size a gap. Key points: They talk about occupancy being lower intentionally to push rents. They mention that they are favoring market rents over occupancy, so they are deliberately leaving some occupancy on the table. But is that a "limit inside the company"? It's a strategic choice, not a capacity limit. They also discuss supply constraints in the market, but that's external. They talk about development yields compressing, but that's about new development. They mention that they have not acquired properties due to tight cap rates, but that's investment decisions. They talk about Prop 10 and rent control, but that's regulatory. They mention that they have a strong demand and job growth, but no specific sizing of unserved demand due to internal limits. They mention that they are pushing rents at slightly lower occupancy, which will benefit 2019. That is a trade-off, not a gap. They also mention that they have a preferred equity program with $398 million outstanding, but that's not about unserved demand. They talk about supply in Seattle being higher, but that's external. They mention that they have a strong balance sheet and liquidity. No where do they say "we could have rented X more units if we had them" or "we have Y demand that we can't serve because of our own capacity." They talk about occupancy being at 96.5% and they are intentionally lowering it to push rents. That is not a capacity limit; it's a pricing strategy. They also mention that they have a development pipeline, but that's future. Thus, no specific sizing of an internal limit causing unserved demand.