Sizing the constraint out loud: management quantifies how much business its own limits are costing right now
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2018 call → NOWe need to determine if management on the call sized a gap between what the company is doing and what it could be doing right now due to an internal limit. The key is whether they volunteered a specific, quantified statement about business they are currently not capturing because of an internal limit, not lack of demand. In the transcript, Mike Dugan says: "We are very fortunate in that the popularity of the service has been great. And so the different beams are filling up at a faster rate than even we had anticipated. So the nice thing about that is that the pipe is getting filled fast, so the internal rate of return on that investment are obviously significantly better than we anticipated. But it's going to have an effect going forward because the areas where there are lot of customers are beginning to have beams that are filled up. So we’ll probably see some level of slowdown in the next year as these beams starts filling up." This indicates that they are filling up capacity, and as beams fill up, they will see a slowdown in growth. But they do not quantify the gap. They don't say how many customers they are turning away or how much demand they can't serve. They just say "some level of slowdown" and "beams are filled up." No specific number or size. Later, Pradman Kaul says: "We are very pleased that we are filling up the satellite ahead our expectations, and as he commented on that improves, obviously the return on the asset, which is obviously about something we always look at. So it's good use that it's filling up faster, but that's the bad news if there is such a thing as bad news in this regarding. It is that we're going reach at point at some point in the future that growth is going to slow because beams will start telling." (typo "telling" probably "filling") Again, no specific number. They mention that they have 1.267 million subscribers, but no mention of how many they could have if they had more capacity. They don't say "we have X number of customers on waitlist" or "we could add Y more if we had capacity." They just say they are filling up faster than expected and growth will slow. The question asks: "does management volunteer a specific, quantified or explicitly sized statement about business the company is CURRENTLY NOT CAPTURING because of a limit inside the company?" They do not provide any specific figure.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHF | WhiteHorse Finance, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-10 | B+ |
| AOSL | Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited | Q2 2018 | 2018-02-07 | B |
WHF · Q1 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management put a size on the gap between what the company is doing and what it could be doing right now? Specifically, a quantified statement about business not captured due to i...
AOSL · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is: Does management put a size on the gap between what the company is doing and what it could be doing right now? Specifically, a quantified statement about business they're currently not...
ESS · Q2 2018 → NOWe need to determine if management on this call sizes a gap between what the company is doing and what it could be doing right now due to an internal limit, with specific quantification. The question asks: "does management PUT A SIZE ON THE GAP BETWEEN WHAT THE COMPANY IS DOING AND WHAT IT COULD BE DOING RIGHT NOW — that is, does management volunteer a specific, quantified or explicitly sized statement about business the company is CURRENTLY NOT CAPTURING because of a limit inside the company, rather than because of a lack of demand?" We need to look for any instance where management quantifies a shortfall due to internal capacity, such as occupancy, supply, or ability to serve demand. The transcript discusses strong demand, occupancy strategy, supply constraints, etc. But we need to see if they size a gap. Key points: They talk about occupancy being lower intentionally to push rents. They mention that they are favoring market rents over occupancy, so they are deliberately leaving some occupancy on the table. But is that a "limit inside the company"? It's a strategic choice, not a capacity limit. They also discuss supply constraints in the market, but that's external. They talk about development yields compressing, but that's about new development. They mention that they have not acquired properties due to tight cap rates, but that's investment decisions. They talk about Prop 10 and rent control, but that's regulatory. They mention that they have a strong demand and job growth, but no specific sizing of unserved demand due to internal limits. They mention that they are pushing rents at slightly lower occupancy, which will benefit 2019. That is a trade-off, not a gap. They also mention that they have a preferred equity program with $398 million outstanding, but that's not about unserved demand. They talk about supply in Seattle being higher, but that's external. They mention that they have a strong balance sheet and liquidity. No where do they say "we could have rented X more units if we had them" or "we have Y demand that we can't serve because of our own capacity." They talk about occupancy being at 96.5% and they are intentionally lowering it to push rents. That is not a capacity limit; it's a pricing strategy. They also mention that they have a development pipeline, but that's future. Thus, no specific sizing of an internal limit causing unserved demand.