Someone else already paid for the growth: management describes an outside party bearing the cost, risk, or work that exp
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2017 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes an outside party already bearing cost/risk/work of expanding the company's business, with payoff mostly ahead. Look for concrete examples. In the transcript, Chris Brickman discusses various initiatives. Key points: - Amazon Prime Now partnership: "we recently partnered with Amazon Prime Now to test a two-hour delivery model in Dallas." This is a test, not yet rolled out. It's a pilot. The outside party (Amazon) is providing the delivery infrastructure, but it's a test. Management says "While the program is still undergoing testing, we plan to work with Amazon to introduce Prime Now to other metropolitan cities, if it proves effective." So it's early, but is Amazon bearing the cost? The delivery is done by Amazon, but the product comes from Sally's stores. It's a partnership where Amazon provides the delivery service. However, it's a test, not a full-scale expansion. The payoff is mostly ahead, but is it "real and already in motion"? Yes, it's a test. But is it "meaningful relative to the company's current size"? Probably not yet. Also, it's a pilot, so it's not a large-scale outside effort. - Social media influencers: "we are leveraging the power of DIY social media beauty influencers to share Sally's value proposition and create a low cost customer acquisition strategy." They host blogger events. The influencers are doing the marketing, but they are not necessarily bearing cost; they are being engaged. The company is hosting events, so the company is spending on events. The influencers are doing the promotion, but it's not clear that they are bearing the cost of expansion. It's more like a marketing campaign. - Loyalty program: that's internal. - BSG new brands: those are vendor partnerships, but not outside parties bearing cost for expansion. - The refinancing: that's about debt, not expansion. - The restructuring: that's internal. - The Amazon Prime Now is the closest to an outside party bearing cost. But it's a test, and management says "if it proves effective" then they will expand. So it's not yet a full-scale outside effort. Also, the cost of delivery is borne by Amazon, but the product and inventory are from Sally. The outside party is providing the delivery service, but it's a test. The payoff is mostly ahead, but it's a small test.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMAX | IMAX Corporation | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-26 | B+ |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| VVV | Valvoline Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-02-09 | C+ |
| YUM | Yum! Brands, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | C |
| ILMN | Illumina, Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | A |
| PCRX | Pacira BioSciences, Inc. | Q4 2017 | 2018-02-28 | C |
| INST | Instructure's | Q4 2017 | 2018-02-12 | B+ |
| AOSL | Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited | Q2 2018 | 2018-02-07 | B |
| MITK | Mitek Systems, Inc. | Q4 2017 | 2017-11-07 | C+ |
| SNA | Snap-on Incorporated | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-19 | B |
| PLAB | Photronics, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-05-17 | C+ |
| IONS | Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-09 | C |
| MGNX | MacroGenics, Inc. | Q3 2016 | 2016-11-02 | D |
| CRIS | Curis, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-09 | C |
INST · Q4 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management describes an outside party already bearing the cost, risk, or work of expanding the company's business, with the effort real and underway now, but the resultin...YES The transcript shows management describing the Paychex partnership as a white-label reseller arrangement where Paychex is already bearing the cost, risk, and work of expanding Instructure’s business by offering Bridge Learn to its 0.5 million customers (6 million users) using its own salesforce and customer base — a real, underway effort since the partnership was entered into and integration is already in progress. Management explicitly states Paychex owns the customers and will sell the product, while Instructure is only powering the backend, and the resulting revenue is still mostly ahead (they are optimistic about significant success by year-end). This matches 100% of the required criteria.
PLAB · Q2 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management describes an outside party already bearing the cost, risk, or work of expanding the company's business, with the effort real and underway now, but the resultin...YES The transcript shows management describing the DNP JV as an outside party already bearing the bulk of the expansion costs and risks for the new China facility (the $160 million Xiamen site, previously announced as a company-led greenfield build last August). Peter Kirlin notes they will "utilize all cash held in Taiwan and greater reduced to risk of ramping of our new factory in China," while Sean Smith confirms they are "sharing that total investment of 160 million as we in essence have a 50-50 partnership, however we will consolidate it" and will "share equitably the startup cost.
YUM · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management describes an outside party already bearing the cost, risk, or work of expanding the company's business, with the effort real and underway now, but the resultin...YES The transcript shows management describing real, ongoing outside efforts by franchisees and partners already bearing the cost, risk, and work of expansion. Franchisees are actively spending their own capital to open units (e.g., 482 net new units YTD vs. 317 last year; KFC opening nearly 200 2Q units; Pizza Hut 6% net new unit growth; Taco Bell 9 international units), with the company 97% franchised and on track for 98%. These efforts are already in motion and contributing to current results, while management highlights acceleration and future ramp (e.g.