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Young streak off a low base

Young streak off a low base: a short run of consecutive-period improvement has just started, after a stretch that gave i

Calls Tested
488
Answered YES
29
Hit Rate
5.9%
rare by design

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) — this company's answers

NO on the Q2 2023 call 2023-07-19 C+
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2023 call → NO我们根据提供的财报电话会议记录来分析。管理层是否传达了一个短期、连续改善的时期,并且原因属于公司本身且仍在持续? 首先,寻找“连续改善”的迹象。在记录中,David Solomon提到:“It definitely feels better over the course of the last 6 to 8 weeks than it felt earlier in the year.” 以及“there's been a pickup in equity capital markets activity. That definitely feels better. There's more M&A dialogue”。但这是否构成一个连续的几个季度或几个时期的改善?管理层提到“June was better. June was definitely better.” 以及“there's more of a risk on sentiment in the month of July than it was earlier in the second quarter.” 但这只是描述最近几周或几个月的改善,并没有明确说连续几个季度或几个时期都在改善。他们提到活动水平在十年低点附近,但正在回升。然而,他们没有明确说“连续两个季度”或“连续三个时期”的改善。 关于投资银行业务,David说“activity levels in many areas of investment banking hover near decade-long lows” 然后说“we're starting to see more activity”。但这是否是连续的?在回答Glenn Schorr的问题时,David说“It definitely feels better over the course of the last 6 to 8 weeks than it felt earlier in the year.” 但这是基于近期观察,而不是已经报告的多个时期。 另外,关于Equities financing,管理层提到“Equities financing revenues were a record $1.4 billion”,但这是单个季度的记录,不是连续改善。关于Asset & Wealth Management,管理提到“management and other fees increased 5% year-over-year to a record $2.4 billion” 和“Private Banking and lending revenues were also a record at $874 million”,但这些都是同比或单季记录,没有连续改善的表述。 关于Platform Solutions,管理层说“we expected to reduce the efficiency ratio in Platform Solutions below 100% by the end of this year and we are making progress.” 但这是目标,不是已实现的连续改善。 关于历史principal investments的减少,管理层说“we reduced this portfolio by $3.6 billion which included sales of a number of CRE-related investments, bringing year-to-date reductions to approximately $6 billion” 这是一个连续减少吗?但这是关于资产组合的减少,不是业务改善。 整体上,管理层讨论了一些改善的迹象,但没有明确说连续几个时期都在改善。例如,关于投资银行活动,他们只说近期感觉更好,但没有说连续两个季度或更多。关于equities financing,是创纪录,但这是单个季度。关于资产和财富管理,有增长,但可能不是连续的。 此外,原因归属:如果存在改善,他们提到了一些公司自身的原因,如“we have been very focused on that”等,但缺乏明确的连续序列。 因此,答案应为NO,因为缺少明确的连续改善的表述。 最终答案:NO

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Show the exact prompt the model was given
Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, does management convey that the business has NOW PUT TOGETHER A SHORT, STILL-YOUNG RUN OF CONSECUTIVE PERIODS OF REAL IMPROVEMENT \u2014 roughly two to four periods in a row of getting better \u2014 in a part of the business that, until recently, had been giving investors little reason to expect it, AND that the causes of this young run are attached to the company itself and still in force?\n\nAnswer YES when management's own words convey, in whatever form fits the business, ONE coherent story with all three of the following present:\n\n(1) A PRIOR STRETCH THAT WAS UNIMPRESSIVE, AND A RUN THAT IS STILL YOUNG. It is evident from management's own account that before this run began, the relevant part of the business \u2014 or the company as a whole \u2014 had been weak, flat, declining, stalled, unprofitable, or simply not yet performing: a stretch that would have given an outside observer little basis for optimism. Against that backdrop, management now describes a recent succession of periods \u2014 the just-reported period plus one or more immediately before it \u2014 in which things have gotten better each time: for example, orders, sales, volumes, customers, utilization, output, activity, or profitability improving quarter after quarter for the last few quarters; losses narrowing period by period; a recovery or ramp that has now strung together several consecutive periods of progress; or management noting that this is the second, third, or fourth period in a row of improvement. The run must be YOUNG \u2014 recent enough that management still frames it as a change from what came before, not a long-established record \u2014 and it must be grounded in real, already-occurred results in management's own telling, not in guidance or hopes.\n\n(2) THE IMPROVEMENT IS SEQUENTIAL AND CUMULATIVE IN MANAGEMENT'S OWN FRAMING. Management itself connects the recent periods into one building progression \u2014 each period better than, or building on, the one before \u2014 rather than merely comparing against a year-ago period or describing one good quarter in isolation. The form of the linkage may vary (consecutive-quarter language, month-after-month or period-after-period progression, a count of successive improvements, or a plainly described step-by-step climb), so long as the sequence is management's own account of what has already happened.\n\n(3) THE CAUSE BELONGS TO THE COMPANY AND IS STILL RUNNING. When management explains why the run exists, the explanation rests mainly on things attached to the company itself \u2014 a product or offering now selling, customers won or returning, a fix, change, capability, or capacity the company put in place now working, execution or positioning the company improved \u2014 rather than on commodity prices, industry-wide tailwinds, restocking, or one-time events; AND management conveys, directly or plainly in substance, that these same drivers remain in effect now, so the just-reported period is presented as the latest step of something still climbing rather than the end of a bounce.\n\nAnswer NO if the company has been performing well for a long time, so the recent periods are simply continuation of an established good record rather than a young change from an unimpressive stretch. NO if the call describes only one good or improved period with no succession of consecutive periods behind it. NO if the improvement is only against the year-ago period, only in guidance, or only expected rather than already strung together in reported periods. NO if management attributes the run mainly to external forces \u2014 commodity or market prices, industry recovery, weather, restocking, pull-forward, an easy comparison \u2014 or to one-time items or cost cuts on a shrinking business. NO if management itself presents the run as finished, peaking, or likely to pause. NO if the business is still deteriorating, with improvement only promised. NO if the sequential framing appears only in an analyst's question or model that management does not itself affirm.\n\nUse only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
ASO Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. Q1 2024 2024-06-11 C+
WRBY Warby Parker Inc. Q1 2024 2024-05-09 A
ASB Associated Banc-Corp Q1 2024 2024-04-25 A
KOPN Kopin Corporation Q4 2023 2024-03-14 C+
OLPX Olaplex Holdings, Inc. Q4 2023 2024-02-29 D
MNKD MannKind Corporation Q4 2023 2024-02-27 C
GPRE Green Plains Inc. Q4 2023 2024-02-07 F
SCPH scPharmaceuticals Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-08 B
BMBL Bumble Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-07 F
ALL The Allstate Corporation Q3 2023 2023-11-02 C+
GOLD Barrick Gold Corporation Q3 2023 2023-11-02 C
OPAD Offerpad Solutions Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-01 C
TEL TE Connectivity Ltd. Q4 2023 2023-11-01 B
SBRA Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-04 B
TACT TransAct Technologies Incorporated Q4 2022 2023-03-08 A
TOST Toast, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-02-16 C+
PKOH Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. Q3 2022 2022-11-13 B
SIBN SI-BONE, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-07 C+
OGI OrganiGram Holdings Inc. Q3 2022 2022-07-14 B+
BXP Boston Properties, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-05-03 A
LC LendingClub Corporation Q4 2021 2022-01-26 A
LEG Leggett & Platt, Incorporated Q3 2021 2021-11-02 C
UFI Unifi, Inc. Q4 2021 2021-08-07 B
ESRT Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. Q2 2021 2021-07-29 C+
LRN Stride, Inc. Q1 2019 2018-10-23 B
ORAN Orange SA Q2 2018 2018-07-26 B
AVT Avnet, Inc. Q2 2018 2018-01-25 B
HOLX Hologic, Inc. Q4 2017 2017-11-08 D
SPR Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. Q1 2016 2016-04-29 D

How the model reasoned

WRBY · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys a short, still-young run of consecutive periods of real improvement in a part of the business that was previously unimpressive, caused by company-speci...
ASB · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys a short, still-young run of consecutive periods of real improvement in a part of the business that was previously unimpressive, caused by company-speci...
KOPN · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys a short, still-young run of consecutive periods of real improvement in a part of the business that was previously unimpressive, caused by company-speci...

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Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our methodology.