Young streak off a low base: a short run of consecutive-period improvement has just started, after a stretch that gave i
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2018 call → NOWe need to determine if the transcript conveys a young run of consecutive improvements in a part of the business that was previously unimpressive, with causes attached to the company and still in force. Let's examine the transcript for evidence. The call is about Q2 2018 results. Management discusses various metrics. Key points: - Same-site NOI growth: Q2 2018 was 3.9%, Q1? Actually they mention "same-site NOI growth was 3.9% for the second quarter... For the six-month same-site NOI growth was 3.2%." So Q1 was about 2.5%? Let's see: six-month 3.2% implies Q1+Q2 average, but they don't give Q1 explicitly. However, they mention "second quarter same site NOI growth was 3.9%... including 10 basis points from redevelopment." They also say "Of particular note is the fact that 80% of the same site growth came from increased minimum rent and percentage rent." So Q2 was strong. But is this a run? They mention "we are raising our same site NOI guidance range from 1.5% to 2% to a new range of 2% to 2.5%". So they have improved guidance. They also mention "our same-site NOI outperformed this quarter due to a strong leasing volume, a slowing of new vacancies and the additional rent collected from our Toys 'R' Us boxes." So they attribute it to internal actions. But is there a prior unimpressive stretch? The transcript mentions "We are now over halfway through the year... the taste and strong pricing of our dispositions give us confidence..." Also "our reposition portfolio is producing solid results. Leasing volume continues to be near all-time highs..." They talk about portfolio repositioning. They mention "We have taken advantage of this public, private disconnect by buying back our shares..." So the company has been repositioning. Was there a prior weak period? They don't explicitly say "we had been declining for years" but they talk about "as we reposition our portfolio for the long-term growth" implying that before repositioning, it wasn't good. Also they mention "we are at a 40-year low for new supply" but that's external. They mention "The vibrant private market evaluations coupled with widely-available debt financing and strong pricing for our Midwest assets continue to demonstrate the disconnect between public and private pricing." That's about dispositions.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| WRBY | Warby Parker Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-09 | A |
| ASB | Associated Banc-Corp | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-25 | A |
| KOPN | Kopin Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-14 | C+ |
| OLPX | Olaplex Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-29 | D |
| MNKD | MannKind Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-27 | C |
| GPRE | Green Plains Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-07 | F |
| SCPH | scPharmaceuticals Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-08 | B |
| BMBL | Bumble Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-07 | F |
| ALL | The Allstate Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | C+ |
| GOLD | Barrick Gold Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | C |
| OPAD | Offerpad Solutions Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C |
| TEL | TE Connectivity Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2023-11-01 | B |
| SBRA | Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-04 | B |
| TACT | TransAct Technologies Incorporated | Q4 2022 | 2023-03-08 | A |
| TOST | Toast, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-16 | C+ |
| PKOH | Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-13 | B |
| SIBN | SI-BONE, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | C+ |
| OGI | OrganiGram Holdings Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-07-14 | B+ |
| BXP | Boston Properties, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-03 | A |
| LC | LendingClub Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-26 | A |
| LEG | Leggett & Platt, Incorporated | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-02 | C |
| UFI | Unifi, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2021-08-07 | B |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-29 | C+ |
| LRN | Stride, Inc. | Q1 2019 | 2018-10-23 | B |
| ORAN | Orange SA | Q2 2018 | 2018-07-26 | B |
| AVT | Avnet, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-01-25 | B |
| HOLX | Hologic, Inc. | Q4 2017 | 2017-11-08 | D |
| SPR | Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | D |
WRBY · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys a short, still-young run of consecutive periods of real improvement in a part of the business that was previously unimpressive, caused by company-speci...
ASB · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys a short, still-young run of consecutive periods of real improvement in a part of the business that was previously unimpressive, caused by company-speci...
KOPN · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys a short, still-young run of consecutive periods of real improvement in a part of the business that was previously unimpressive, caused by company-speci...