Hypothesis Tested: Repeat expansion inside the base while new logos still arrive

When a company keeps expanding within its existing customer base while still landing new logos, that dual growth story shows up on earnings calls. Among 165,000 transcripts read by an AI, 186 calls matched this pattern out of a 499-call base group. It matters because analysts often treat expansion and new-logo acquisition as competing narratives, and this study tests what happens when management claims both at once.

These calls skew confident and promotional: confidence scored 7.54 versus 7.33 in the base, and promotion 5.41 versus 5.11. The pattern co-occurs strongly with "Early Products Growing Fast" (1.41x lift, 54.8% versus 38.9%) and "Founder-Led Companies" (1.41x). It peaked in 2022 at 0.26 prevalence after near-zero in 2019-2020. Post-call returns were actually better than base: median -5.7% versus -10.5%, with 42.9% beating expectations versus 38.2%.

These AI-read fields are noisy, and the return figures are descriptive history from a 22,449-call sample, not a trading signal. Our own forward tests have falsified directional prediction from these features. Language models also partially remember famous stocks' histories, which contaminates any backtest built on their outputs.

Behavior profile

Guidance actions in this group

What travels with it

Share of calls by year

Recent examples

This hypothesis has its own page with every matching company: see the full question.