Steady As She Goes: What Happens When Guidance Holds The Line
This study examines 80,591 earnings calls out of a 165,182-call corpus spanning 1990-2026 where guidance was read as maintained - 48.79% of all calls (95% CI 48.55%-49.03%). Maintained-guidance calls show modestly better communication profiles than the base: confidence 7.30 vs 7.21, specificity 7.63 vs 7.56, and stress 2.31 vs 2.43, with evasion slightly lower at 2.66 vs 2.70. The only overrepresented language theme is 'Scale-Dependent Advantage Claims' (lift 0.73). Annual share of maintained guidance dropped sharply to 36.31% in 2020 before recovering to 52.54% by 2025. Among 11,343 calls with return data, the median follow-up return was -0.07%, with 38.73% beating the base rate's 39.47%.
- Maintained guidance appears in 48.79% of the 165,182-call corpus (80,591 calls), with a 95% CI of 48.55% to 49.03%.
- Maintained-guidance calls score higher on confidence (7.30 vs 7.21) and specificity (7.63 vs 7.56) and lower on stress (2.31 vs 2.43) than the base corpus.
- The share of calls with maintained guidance fell to 36.31% in 2020 (17,007 calls) before climbing back to 52.54% in 2025 (6,012 calls).
- The only overrepresented language theme is 'Scale-Dependent Advantage Claims' with a lift of 0.73, and 38.73% of the 11,343 return-sample calls beat the base rate of 39.47%.
- Median follow-up return for maintained-guidance calls is -0.074%, essentially matching the base corpus median of -0.072%.
1Introduction
Most guidance talk on earnings calls is not a raise or a cut - it is a careful act of holding position. Nearly half of the 165,182 calls in our corpus (48.79%, or 80,591 calls) were read as maintaining prior guidance, making this the single most common guidance posture management takes. Yet 'maintained' is underexamined compared with dramatic lowers and withdrawals, even though it carries its own language signature and its own historical pattern across market regimes, from the 2020 collapse in maintenance to the slow rebuild afterward. This study profiles those 80,591 calls: how their tone differs, which themes surface more often, how the practice has trended since 2015, and how returns compare.
2Data & methodology
The corpus comprises 165,182 earnings-call transcripts published between 1990 and 2026, each scored independently by a large language model on an identical 37-field battery: seven categorical business verdicts, eight 0–9 behavioral meters, and twenty yes/no judgments. The study group is defined as calls where guidance was read as maintained (n = 80,591; 48.8% of the reference set, 95% Wilson interval 48.5%–49.0%). Baseline figures use all scored calls. Market outcomes join a fixed sample of 22,449 calls with twelve-month total returns in excess of SPY, measured from the first close after each call; this sample skews toward liquid U.S. names and is reported as descriptive history only.
3Results
Maintained-guidance calls read slightly more assured than the corpus at large: confidence runs 7.30 versus 7.21, specificity 7.63 versus 7.56, and stress 2.31 versus 2.43, with evasion a touch lower at 2.66 versus 2.70. The sole overrepresented theme, 'Scale-Dependent Advantage Claims', carries a lift of 0.73. The annual trend is striking: maintenance share fell from 55.58% in 2015 to 36.31% in 2020, then recovered steadily - 42.74% in 2021, 46.89% in 2022, 50.98% in 2023, 51.94% in 2024, and 52.54% in 2025. Returns offer no clear separation: median follow-up return of -0.074% versus -0.072% for the base, with 38.73% beating the base's 39.47%.
| Meter | Study group | Baseline | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Candor | 6.88 | 6.86 | +0.02 |
| Evasion | 2.66 | 2.70 | -0.03 |
| Specificity | 7.63 | 7.56 | +0.07 |
| Stress | 2.31 | 2.43 | -0.12 |
| Promotion | 4.98 | 5.05 | -0.07 |
| Confidence | 7.30 | 7.21 | +0.09 |
| Action | Study group | Baseline |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | 0.0% | 21.1% |
| Maintained | 100.0% | 48.8% |
| Lowered | 0.0% | 11.6% |
| Withdrawn | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| Signal | Lift | In group | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scale-Dependent Advantage Claims | 0.73× | 8.1% | 11.1% |
| Statistic | Study group | Returns sample |
|---|---|---|
| Median excess return | -7.4% | -7.2% |
| Interquartile range | -25.6% to +10.4% | — |
| Share beating SPY | 38.7% (95% CI 38%–40%) | 39.5% |
| Observations | 11,343 | 22,449 |
| Ticker | Quarter | Call date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| DOC | Q2 2025 | 2025-07-25 | C |
| USCB | Q2 2025 | 2025-07-25 | B+ |
| AON | Q2 2025 | 2025-07-25 | C |
| AMSF | Q2 2025 | 2025-07-25 | C+ |
| VRTS | Q2 2025 | 2025-07-25 | C+ |
| HMDPF | Q2 2025 | 2025-07-25 | B |
| ULH | Q2 2025 | 2025-07-25 | C+ |
| FFBC | Q2 2025 | 2025-07-25 | B+ |
4Discussion
The right takeaway is descriptive, not predictive. Maintained-guidance calls sound marginally more confident and less stressed than average, but the deltas are small and measured by AI readers, not ground truth. The 2020 trough and subsequent recovery coincide with well-known macro events; association across years is not evidence that guidance posture causes anything. Likewise, the returns comparison is a wash by design of the data - a 38.73% beat rate against a 39.47% base is a difference, not an edge. Readers should treat this as a profile of a common communication pattern, not a signal to act on.
5Limitations
Candor, evasion, specificity, stress, promotion, and confidence are AI-read fields and inherently noisy, so small deltas may not survive measurement error. The returns sample covers 22,449 calls but is skewed toward liquid names, and our own forward tests falsified directional prediction on this data. Additionally, LLMs partially remember famous stocks' histories, which can contaminate any backtest of language against returns. The annual trend also mixes changing corpus composition with changing practice. All figures describe the past; none license causal or forward-looking claims. See the full methodology, including the C1 pattern’s forward-test failure and the LLM-memorization finding.