The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) — Earnings Call X-Ray
Our AI read all 38 of CG's earnings calls (2016–2025) and answered the same battery of questions about each one. Every past call is free; the newest quarter unlocks with a free account.
Previous Call Grade
C+
Q4 2024
Calls Analyzed
38
2016–2025
Avg Candor
6.8/9
evasion 3.1/9
Call-by-call analysis
🔒 Q1 2025 earnings call
2025-05-08
NEWEST
Guidance: ■■■■■Demand: ■■■■■■
Margins: ■■■■Backlog: ■■■■
■ analysts, ■■ questionsexpected move ±■■%
Management ■■■■■■ guidance against ■■■■■■■■ demand and ■■■■■■■ margins. The delivery was ■■■■■■■■ and ■■■■ in specifics, with ■■■ questions left hanging.
🔒 The Q1 2025 call grade is ready
The full 37-point AI read of CG's newest earnings call — grade, expected move, and every question answered — is free with an account.
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C+
Q4 2024 earnings call
2025-02-11
move ±8.3%
Management held guidance steady against accelerating demand and expanding margins. The delivery was unusually candid, rich in specifics.
Guidance: maintainedDemand: acceleratingMargins: expandingBacklog: growingPricing: stableHeadcount: growingCapex: increasing 13 analysts · 17 questions
⚑ Critic ammunition✓ Skeptic reassured⚑ Question left hanging✓ Guidance underwritable✓ Resolves doubts✓ Prepayments growing
All 20 questions our AI answered about this call
YES Would a skeptical short-seller find this call reassuring?
YES Would a careful investor underwrite management's guidance?
YES Is management's confidence proportionate to the evidence presented?
YES Does the call resolve more doubts than it creates?
YES Is there something a critic could fairly use against the company?
YES Is a claimed advantage dependent on scale they lack?
YES Does an obvious question remain unanswered?
YES Is a product early in its life but growing very fast?
NO Do they serve a small fraction of their addressable customers?
NO Is volume about to step up rather than grow gradually?
NO Are high fixed costs currently underutilised?
NO Is pricing recovering from a depressed level?
NO Do current results look bad while the direction looks better?
YES Are deferred revenue or customer prepayments growing?
NO Is consolidation happening among their peers?
NO Is a founder still running the company?
NO Does the final speaker sound like they are summarizing a finished story?
YES Is a fast-growing segment obscured by a declining one?
YES Does the CFO speak more than the CEO?
YES Does the call read rehearsed rather than lived?
C+
Q3 2024 earnings call
2024-11-07
move ±8.8%
Management held guidance steady against accelerating demand and expanding margins. The delivery was rich in specifics.
Guidance: maintainedDemand: acceleratingMargins: expandingBacklog: growingPricing: stable 12 analysts · 12 questions
⚑ Critic ammunition✓ Skeptic reassured✓ Guidance underwritable✓ Resolves doubts✓ Prepayments growing✓ Volume step-up ahead
All 20 questions our AI answered about this call
YES Would a skeptical short-seller find this call reassuring?
YES Would a careful investor underwrite management's guidance?
YES Is management's confidence proportionate to the evidence presented?
YES Does the call resolve more doubts than it creates?
YES Is there something a critic could fairly use against the company?
NO Is a claimed advantage dependent on scale they lack?
NO Does an obvious question remain unanswered?
YES Is a product early in its life but growing very fast?
YES Do they serve a small fraction of their addressable customers?
YES Is volume about to step up rather than grow gradually?
NO Are high fixed costs currently underutilised?
NO Is pricing recovering from a depressed level?
NO Do current results look bad while the direction looks better?
YES Are deferred revenue or customer prepayments growing?
NO Is consolidation happening among their peers?
NO Is a founder still running the company?
NO Does the final speaker sound like they are summarizing a finished story?
NO Is a fast-growing segment obscured by a declining one?
NO Does the CFO speak more than the CEO?
NO Does the call read rehearsed rather than lived?
C+
Q2 2024 earnings call
2024-08-05
move ±13.1%
Management held guidance steady against accelerating demand and expanding margins. The delivery was unusually candid, rich in specifics.
Guidance: maintainedDemand: acceleratingMargins: expandingBacklog: growingPricing: stable 12 analysts · 12 questions
⚑ Critic ammunition✓ Skeptic reassured✓ Guidance underwritable✓ Resolves doubts✓ Prepayments growing✓ Volume step-up ahead
All 20 questions our AI answered about this call
YES Would a skeptical short-seller find this call reassuring?
YES Would a careful investor underwrite management's guidance?
YES Is management's confidence proportionate to the evidence presented?
YES Does the call resolve more doubts than it creates?
YES Is there something a critic could fairly use against the company?
NO Is a claimed advantage dependent on scale they lack?
NO Does an obvious question remain unanswered?
YES Is a product early in its life but growing very fast?
YES Do they serve a small fraction of their addressable customers?
YES Is volume about to step up rather than grow gradually?
NO Are high fixed costs currently underutilised?
NO Is pricing recovering from a depressed level?
NO Do current results look bad while the direction looks better?
YES Are deferred revenue or customer prepayments growing?
NO Is consolidation happening among their peers?
NO Is a founder still running the company?
NO Does the final speaker sound like they are summarizing a finished story?
NO Is a fast-growing segment obscured by a declining one?
YES Does the CFO speak more than the CEO?
NO Does the call read rehearsed rather than lived?
C
Q1 2024 earnings call
2024-05-01
move ±9%
Management held guidance steady against accelerating demand and expanding margins. The delivery was rich in specifics.
Guidance: maintainedDemand: acceleratingMargins: expandingBacklog: growingPricing: stable 14 analysts · 17 questions
⚑ Critic ammunition✓ Skeptic reassured✓ Guidance underwritable✓ Resolves doubts✓ Prepayments growing✓ Volume step-up ahead
All 20 questions our AI answered about this call
YES Would a skeptical short-seller find this call reassuring?
YES Would a careful investor underwrite management's guidance?
YES Is management's confidence proportionate to the evidence presented?
YES Does the call resolve more doubts than it creates?
YES Is there something a critic could fairly use against the company?
NO Is a claimed advantage dependent on scale they lack?
NO Does an obvious question remain unanswered?
YES Is a product early in its life but growing very fast?
NO Do they serve a small fraction of their addressable customers?
YES Is volume about to step up rather than grow gradually?
NO Are high fixed costs currently underutilised?
NO Is pricing recovering from a depressed level?
NO Do current results look bad while the direction looks better?
YES Are deferred revenue or customer prepayments growing?
NO Is consolidation happening among their peers?
NO Is a founder still running the company?
NO Does the final speaker sound like they are summarizing a finished story?
NO Is a fast-growing segment obscured by a declining one?
NO Does the CFO speak more than the CEO?
YES Does the call read rehearsed rather than lived?
B
Q4 2023 earnings call
2024-02-07
move ±10.7%
Management raised guidance against accelerating demand and expanding margins. The delivery was rich in specifics.
Guidance: raisedDemand: acceleratingMargins: expandingBacklog: growingPricing: stableHeadcount: growing 14 analysts · 16 questions
⚑ Critic ammunition✓ Skeptic reassured✓ Guidance underwritable✓ Resolves doubts✓ Early product, fast growth
All 20 questions our AI answered about this call
YES Would a skeptical short-seller find this call reassuring?
YES Would a careful investor underwrite management's guidance?
YES Is management's confidence proportionate to the evidence presented?
YES Does the call resolve more doubts than it creates?
YES Is there something a critic could fairly use against the company?
NO Is a claimed advantage dependent on scale they lack?
NO Does an obvious question remain unanswered?
YES Is a product early in its life but growing very fast?
NO Do they serve a small fraction of their addressable customers?
NO Is volume about to step up rather than grow gradually?
NO Are high fixed costs currently underutilised?
NO Is pricing recovering from a depressed level?
NO Do current results look bad while the direction looks better?
NO Are deferred revenue or customer prepayments growing?
NO Is consolidation happening among their peers?
NO Is a founder still running the company?
NO Does the final speaker sound like they are summarizing a finished story?
NO Is a fast-growing segment obscured by a declining one?
NO Does the CFO speak more than the CEO?
NO Does the call read rehearsed rather than lived?
D
Q3 2023 earnings call
2023-11-07
move ±10%
Management gave no formal guidance against mixed demand signals and expanding margins. The delivery was unusually candid, rich in specifics.
Demand: mixedMargins: expandingBacklog: growingHeadcount: cutting 12 analysts · 14 questions
⚑ Critic ammunition⚑ Question left hanging✓ Volume step-up ahead✓ Early product, fast growthDirection beats results
All 20 questions our AI answered about this call
NO Would a skeptical short-seller find this call reassuring?
NO Would a careful investor underwrite management's guidance?
YES Is management's confidence proportionate to the evidence presented?
NO Does the call resolve more doubts than it creates?
YES Is there something a critic could fairly use against the company?
NO Is a claimed advantage dependent on scale they lack?
YES Does an obvious question remain unanswered?
YES Is a product early in its life but growing very fast?
YES Do they serve a small fraction of their addressable customers?
YES Is volume about to step up rather than grow gradually?
NO Are high fixed costs currently underutilised?
NO Is pricing recovering from a depressed level?
YES Do current results look bad while the direction looks better?
NO Are deferred revenue or customer prepayments growing?
NO Is consolidation happening among their peers?
NO Is a founder still running the company?
NO Does the final speaker sound like they are summarizing a finished story?
NO Is a fast-growing segment obscured by a declining one?
NO Does the CFO speak more than the CEO?
NO Does the call read rehearsed rather than lived?
D
Q2 2023 earnings call
2023-08-02
move ±11.5%
Management held guidance steady against mixed demand signals and contracting margins.
Guidance: maintainedDemand: mixedMargins: contractingBacklog: stablePricing: under pressureHeadcount: growing 11 analysts · 12 questions
⚑ Critic ammunition⚑ Question left hanging✓ Guidance underwritable⚑ Reads rehearsedDirection beats results
All 20 questions our AI answered about this call
NO Would a skeptical short-seller find this call reassuring?
YES Would a careful investor underwrite management's guidance?
YES Is management's confidence proportionate to the evidence presented?
NO Does the call resolve more doubts than it creates?
YES Is there something a critic could fairly use against the company?
NO Is a claimed advantage dependent on scale they lack?
YES Does an obvious question remain unanswered?
NO Is a product early in its life but growing very fast?
YES Do they serve a small fraction of their addressable customers?
NO Is volume about to step up rather than grow gradually?
NO Are high fixed costs currently underutilised?
NO Is pricing recovering from a depressed level?
YES Do current results look bad while the direction looks better?
NO Are deferred revenue or customer prepayments growing?
NO Is consolidation happening among their peers?
NO Is a founder still running the company?
NO Does the final speaker sound like they are summarizing a finished story?
NO Is a fast-growing segment obscured by a declining one?
NO Does the CFO speak more than the CEO?
YES Does the call read rehearsed rather than lived?
Earlier calls
| Call | Date | Grade | Guidance | Demand | Margins | Candor | Evasion |
|---|
| Q1 2023 |
2023-05-04 |
D |
lowered | slowing | contracting |
8/9 |
4/9 |
| Q4 2022 |
2023-02-07 |
C+ |
maintained | mixed | expanding |
7/9 |
4/9 |
| Q3 2022 |
2022-11-08 |
C |
lowered | slowing | expanding |
7/9 |
4/9 |
| Q2 2022 |
2022-07-28 |
C+ |
maintained | mixed | expanding |
6/9 |
3/9 |
| Q1 2022 |
2022-04-28 |
B+ |
raised | stable | expanding |
7/9 |
2/9 |
| Q4 2021 |
2022-02-03 |
B |
raised | accelerating | expanding |
6/9 |
3/9 |
| Q3 2021 |
2021-10-28 |
B+ |
raised | accelerating | expanding |
6/9 |
3/9 |
| Q2 2021 |
2021-07-29 |
B |
raised | accelerating | expanding |
6/9 |
3/9 |
| Q1 2021 |
2021-04-29 |
C+ |
maintained | accelerating | expanding |
7/9 |
4/9 |
| Q4 2020 |
2021-02-04 |
C |
maintained | accelerating | expanding |
6/9 |
5/9 |
| Q3 2020 |
2020-10-30 |
B+ |
raised | accelerating | expanding |
7/9 |
3/9 |
| Q2 2020 |
2020-07-30 |
B+ |
raised | mixed | stable |
7/9 |
2/9 |
| Q1 2020 |
2020-04-30 |
C |
withdrawn | slowing | contracting |
8/9 |
4/9 |
| Q4 2019 |
2020-02-05 |
B |
raised | stable | expanding |
6/9 |
4/9 |
| Q3 2019 |
2019-10-31 |
B+ |
raised | stable | expanding |
7/9 |
3/9 |
| Q2 2019 |
2019-07-31 |
B+ |
maintained | stable | expanding |
7/9 |
2/9 |
| Q1 2019 |
2019-05-01 |
C+ |
maintained | stable | expanding |
7/9 |
3/9 |
| Q4 2018 |
2019-02-06 |
A |
raised | stable | expanding |
7/9 |
2/9 |
| Q3 2018 |
2018-10-31 |
B+ |
raised | stable | expanding |
7/9 |
3/9 |
| Q2 2018 |
2018-08-01 |
B+ |
raised | accelerating | expanding |
7/9 |
3/9 |
| Q1 2018 |
2018-05-04 |
B |
maintained | accelerating | expanding |
7/9 |
2/9 |
| Q4 2017 |
2018-02-07 |
B+ |
raised | accelerating | expanding |
7/9 |
3/9 |
| Q3 2017 |
2017-10-31 |
B+ |
raised | accelerating | expanding |
7/9 |
3/9 |
| Q2 2017 |
2017-08-02 |
B+ |
maintained | accelerating | stable |
7/9 |
2/9 |
| Q1 2017 |
2017-05-03 |
B+ |
maintained | accelerating | contracting |
6/9 |
3/9 |
| Q4 2016 |
2017-02-08 |
C |
maintained | stable | contracting |
7/9 |
4/9 |
| Q3 2016 |
2016-10-26 |
C+ |
maintained | stable | contracting |
7/9 |
3/9 |
| Q2 2016 |
2016-07-27 |
C+ |
lowered | mixed | contracting |
8/9 |
2/9 |
| Q1 2016 |
2016-04-27 |
C |
maintained | mixed | stable |
7/9 |
3/9 |
| Q4 2015 |
2016-02-10 |
C+ |
maintained | mixed | stable |
7/9 |
2/9 |
Research question bank — earlier calls
During our 1,600-question research program, batches of experimental hypotheses were tested directly against some of CG's earlier calls. The YES answers — the rare hits — are shown; click any question to see every company that matched it. Full list: the question bank.
B
Q1 2018 earnings call
2018-05-04
16 more research questions answered NO
C+
Q3 2016 earnings call
2016-10-26
1 more research questions answered NO
How to read this page
The grade is a transparent composite of call quality — candor, specificity, low evasion, low stress, whether the call resolves more doubts than it creates, and the guidance action — not a buy or sell signal. The expected move is a volatility estimate from the one signal that survived our out-of-sample tests: how a stock's own reaction and pre-call volatility predict the size (not direction) of its next move. Full detail, including everything that failed: methodology.
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Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our
methodology.