Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) — Earnings Call X-Ray
Our AI read all 17 of UPST's earnings calls (2021–2025) and answered the same battery of questions about each one. Every past call is free; the newest quarter unlocks with a free account.
Previous Call Grade
B+
Q4 2024
Calls Analyzed
17
2021–2025
Avg Candor
7.2/9
evasion 2.7/9
Call-by-call analysis
🔒 Q1 2025 earnings call
2025-05-06
NEWEST
Guidance: ■■■■■Demand: ■■■■■■
Margins: ■■■■Backlog: ■■■■
■ analysts, ■■ questionsexpected move ±■■%
Management ■■■■■■ guidance against ■■■■■■■■ demand and ■■■■■■■ margins. The delivery was ■■■■■■■■ and ■■■■ in specifics, with ■■■ questions left hanging.
🔒 The Q1 2025 call grade is ready
The full 37-point AI read of UPST's newest earnings call — grade, expected move, and every question answered — is free with an account.
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B+
Q4 2024 earnings call
2025-02-11
move ±38%
Management raised guidance against accelerating demand. The delivery was unusually candid, rich in specifics, promotional in tone.
Guidance: raisedDemand: acceleratingMargins: stableBacklog: growingPricing: under pressure 12 analysts · 24 questions
⚑ Critic ammunition✓ Skeptic reassured✓ Guidance underwritable✓ Resolves doubts✓ Volume step-up ahead✓ Early product, fast growth
All 20 questions our AI answered about this call
YES Would a skeptical short-seller find this call reassuring?
YES Would a careful investor underwrite management's guidance?
YES Is management's confidence proportionate to the evidence presented?
YES Does the call resolve more doubts than it creates?
YES Is there something a critic could fairly use against the company?
NO Is a claimed advantage dependent on scale they lack?
NO Does an obvious question remain unanswered?
YES Is a product early in its life but growing very fast?
YES Do they serve a small fraction of their addressable customers?
YES Is volume about to step up rather than grow gradually?
NO Are high fixed costs currently underutilised?
YES Is pricing recovering from a depressed level?
NO Do current results look bad while the direction looks better?
NO Are deferred revenue or customer prepayments growing?
NO Is consolidation happening among their peers?
YES Is a founder still running the company?
NO Does the final speaker sound like they are summarizing a finished story?
NO Is a fast-growing segment obscured by a declining one?
NO Does the CFO speak more than the CEO?
NO Does the call read rehearsed rather than lived?
B+
Q3 2024 earnings call
2024-11-08
move ±25%
Management raised guidance against accelerating demand and expanding margins. The delivery was unusually candid, rich in specifics.
Guidance: raisedDemand: acceleratingMargins: expandingPricing: stableHeadcount: cutting 9 analysts · 19 questions
⚑ Critic ammunition✓ Skeptic reassured✓ Guidance underwritable✓ Resolves doubts✓ Early product, fast growthFounder-led
All 20 questions our AI answered about this call
YES Would a skeptical short-seller find this call reassuring?
YES Would a careful investor underwrite management's guidance?
YES Is management's confidence proportionate to the evidence presented?
YES Does the call resolve more doubts than it creates?
YES Is there something a critic could fairly use against the company?
NO Is a claimed advantage dependent on scale they lack?
NO Does an obvious question remain unanswered?
YES Is a product early in its life but growing very fast?
YES Do they serve a small fraction of their addressable customers?
NO Is volume about to step up rather than grow gradually?
NO Are high fixed costs currently underutilised?
NO Is pricing recovering from a depressed level?
NO Do current results look bad while the direction looks better?
NO Are deferred revenue or customer prepayments growing?
NO Is consolidation happening among their peers?
YES Is a founder still running the company?
NO Does the final speaker sound like they are summarizing a finished story?
NO Is a fast-growing segment obscured by a declining one?
NO Does the CFO speak more than the CEO?
NO Does the call read rehearsed rather than lived?
B+
Q2 2024 earnings call
2024-08-06
move ±47.6%
Management raised guidance against accelerating demand and expanding margins. The delivery was unusually candid, rich in specifics.
Guidance: raisedDemand: acceleratingMargins: expandingPricing: stableHeadcount: cutting 12 analysts · 25 questions
⚑ Critic ammunition✓ Skeptic reassured✓ Guidance underwritable✓ Resolves doubts✓ Volume step-up ahead✓ Early product, fast growth
All 20 questions our AI answered about this call
YES Would a skeptical short-seller find this call reassuring?
YES Would a careful investor underwrite management's guidance?
YES Is management's confidence proportionate to the evidence presented?
YES Does the call resolve more doubts than it creates?
YES Is there something a critic could fairly use against the company?
NO Is a claimed advantage dependent on scale they lack?
NO Does an obvious question remain unanswered?
YES Is a product early in its life but growing very fast?
YES Do they serve a small fraction of their addressable customers?
YES Is volume about to step up rather than grow gradually?
YES Are high fixed costs currently underutilised?
YES Is pricing recovering from a depressed level?
YES Do current results look bad while the direction looks better?
NO Are deferred revenue or customer prepayments growing?
NO Is consolidation happening among their peers?
YES Is a founder still running the company?
NO Does the final speaker sound like they are summarizing a finished story?
NO Is a fast-growing segment obscured by a declining one?
NO Does the CFO speak more than the CEO?
NO Does the call read rehearsed rather than lived?
C
Q1 2024 earnings call
2024-05-07
move ±15.2%
Management held guidance steady against mixed demand signals and contracting margins. The delivery was unusually candid, rich in specifics.
Guidance: maintainedDemand: mixedMargins: contractingBacklog: growingPricing: raisingHeadcount: cuttingCapex: decreasing 12 analysts · 24 questions
⚑ Critic ammunition⚑ Question left hanging✓ Resolves doubts✓ Early product, fast growth⚑ Reads rehearsedFounder-led
All 20 questions our AI answered about this call
NO Would a skeptical short-seller find this call reassuring?
NO Would a careful investor underwrite management's guidance?
YES Is management's confidence proportionate to the evidence presented?
YES Does the call resolve more doubts than it creates?
YES Is there something a critic could fairly use against the company?
YES Is a claimed advantage dependent on scale they lack?
YES Does an obvious question remain unanswered?
YES Is a product early in its life but growing very fast?
YES Do they serve a small fraction of their addressable customers?
NO Is volume about to step up rather than grow gradually?
YES Are high fixed costs currently underutilised?
NO Is pricing recovering from a depressed level?
YES Do current results look bad while the direction looks better?
NO Are deferred revenue or customer prepayments growing?
NO Is consolidation happening among their peers?
YES Is a founder still running the company?
NO Does the final speaker sound like they are summarizing a finished story?
NO Is a fast-growing segment obscured by a declining one?
NO Does the CFO speak more than the CEO?
YES Does the call read rehearsed rather than lived?
F
Q4 2023 earnings call
2024-02-13
move ±29.1%
Management lowered guidance against slowing demand and expanding margins. The delivery was unusually candid.
Guidance: loweredDemand: slowingMargins: expandingPricing: raisingHeadcount: cutting 11 analysts · 19 questions
⚑ Critic ammunition⚑ Question left hanging✓ Early product, fast growthFounder-ledDirection beats results
All 20 questions our AI answered about this call
NO Would a skeptical short-seller find this call reassuring?
NO Would a careful investor underwrite management's guidance?
YES Is management's confidence proportionate to the evidence presented?
NO Does the call resolve more doubts than it creates?
YES Is there something a critic could fairly use against the company?
YES Is a claimed advantage dependent on scale they lack?
YES Does an obvious question remain unanswered?
YES Is a product early in its life but growing very fast?
YES Do they serve a small fraction of their addressable customers?
NO Is volume about to step up rather than grow gradually?
YES Are high fixed costs currently underutilised?
NO Is pricing recovering from a depressed level?
YES Do current results look bad while the direction looks better?
NO Are deferred revenue or customer prepayments growing?
NO Is consolidation happening among their peers?
YES Is a founder still running the company?
NO Does the final speaker sound like they are summarizing a finished story?
NO Is a fast-growing segment obscured by a declining one?
NO Does the CFO speak more than the CEO?
NO Does the call read rehearsed rather than lived?
From the research question bank
2 more research questions answered NO
F
Q3 2023 earnings call
2023-11-07
move ±36.2%
Management held guidance steady against mixed demand signals. The delivery was unusually candid, rich in specifics.
Guidance: maintainedDemand: mixedMargins: stablePricing: under pressureHeadcount: flat 10 analysts · 22 questions
⚑ Critic ammunition⚑ Question left hanging✓ Early product, fast growthFounder-ledDirection beats results
All 20 questions our AI answered about this call
NO Would a skeptical short-seller find this call reassuring?
NO Would a careful investor underwrite management's guidance?
NO Is management's confidence proportionate to the evidence presented?
NO Does the call resolve more doubts than it creates?
YES Is there something a critic could fairly use against the company?
YES Is a claimed advantage dependent on scale they lack?
YES Does an obvious question remain unanswered?
YES Is a product early in its life but growing very fast?
YES Do they serve a small fraction of their addressable customers?
NO Is volume about to step up rather than grow gradually?
YES Are high fixed costs currently underutilised?
NO Is pricing recovering from a depressed level?
YES Do current results look bad while the direction looks better?
NO Are deferred revenue or customer prepayments growing?
NO Is consolidation happening among their peers?
YES Is a founder still running the company?
NO Does the final speaker sound like they are summarizing a finished story?
NO Is a fast-growing segment obscured by a declining one?
NO Does the CFO speak more than the CEO?
NO Does the call read rehearsed rather than lived?
C
Q2 2023 earnings call
2023-08-08
move ±46.6%
Management held guidance steady against mixed demand signals and expanding margins. The delivery was unusually candid, rich in specifics.
Guidance: maintainedDemand: mixedMargins: expandingPricing: raisingHeadcount: cuttingCapex: decreasing 9 analysts · 21 questions
⚑ Critic ammunition⚑ Question left hanging✓ Early product, fast growth⚑ Reads rehearsedFounder-ledDirection beats results
All 20 questions our AI answered about this call
NO Would a skeptical short-seller find this call reassuring?
NO Would a careful investor underwrite management's guidance?
YES Is management's confidence proportionate to the evidence presented?
NO Does the call resolve more doubts than it creates?
YES Is there something a critic could fairly use against the company?
NO Is a claimed advantage dependent on scale they lack?
YES Does an obvious question remain unanswered?
YES Is a product early in its life but growing very fast?
YES Do they serve a small fraction of their addressable customers?
NO Is volume about to step up rather than grow gradually?
YES Are high fixed costs currently underutilised?
NO Is pricing recovering from a depressed level?
YES Do current results look bad while the direction looks better?
NO Are deferred revenue or customer prepayments growing?
NO Is consolidation happening among their peers?
YES Is a founder still running the company?
NO Does the final speaker sound like they are summarizing a finished story?
NO Is a fast-growing segment obscured by a declining one?
NO Does the CFO speak more than the CEO?
YES Does the call read rehearsed rather than lived?
Earlier calls
| Call | Date | Grade | Guidance | Demand | Margins | Candor | Evasion |
|---|
| Q1 2023 |
2023-05-09 |
B |
raised | mixed | expanding |
7/9 |
2/9 |
| Q4 2022 |
2023-02-14 |
F |
lowered | stable | expanding |
8/9 |
3/9 |
| Q3 2022 |
2022-11-08 |
D |
lowered | slowing | expanding |
8/9 |
3/9 |
| Q2 2022 |
2022-08-08 |
F |
lowered | slowing | expanding |
8/9 |
4/9 |
| Q1 2022 |
2022-05-09 |
D |
lowered | slowing | contracting |
7/9 |
2/9 |
| Q4 2021 |
2022-02-15 |
B |
raised | accelerating | contracting |
7/9 |
3/9 |
| Nov 2021 |
2021-11-09 |
B |
raised | accelerating | contracting |
7/9 |
3/9 |
| Q2 2021 |
2021-08-10 |
B+ |
raised | accelerating | expanding |
7/9 |
3/9 |
| Q1 2021 |
2021-05-11 |
B+ |
raised | accelerating | expanding |
7/9 |
2/9 |
How to read this page
The grade is a transparent composite of call quality — candor, specificity, low evasion, low stress, whether the call resolves more doubts than it creates, and the guidance action — not a buy or sell signal. The expected move is a volatility estimate from the one signal that survived our out-of-sample tests: how a stock's own reaction and pre-call volatility predict the size (not direction) of its next move. Full detail, including everything that failed: methodology.
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Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our
methodology.