Escape velocity out of a small base: management describes the business compounding at a rate its own size cannot absorb
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2018 call → NOWe need answer YES/NO based on transcript. Need determine if management describes company as at point where rate of accumulating has become dominant fact, with multiples/repeated doublings of recent past, and base still small. Let's analyze transcript. Management discusses fundraising, FRE, credit build, etc. Need see if they frame current activity as multiples of recent past and treat company as still small. Key quotes: Glenn: "we are absolutely tracking to meet objectives." "over 60% of capital commitments from investors in six or more funds" etc. "Having raised $48 billion over past 12 months" not multiple. Curt: "Pending fee earning AUM reached $27 billion, up from $22 billion at year-end." Not multiple. Real Assets: "We nearly tripled fee-related earnings to $24 million from year ago period" That's a multiple. But is that real activity? Fee-related earnings is real. But is it "dominant fact"? Also "run rate fee-related earnings has increased from annualized $50 million at yearend 2016 to $100 million today" That's doubling. But is base small? They say "we are already seeing this happening in Real Assets where run rate fee-related earnings has increased from annualized $50 million to $100 million today." That's a doubling, but not "several times" maybe. Global Credit: "increased management fees by 22% year-over-year" not multiple. "over past year, priced just under $5 billion of CLOs and directly originated $2 billion gross new loans" not multiple. Investment Solutions: "net performance revenues were $11 million, more than double the level in first quarter of 2017." That's a multiple. "Net accrued carry in Investment Solutions reached record $87 million, up 85% compared to Q1 2017." Not exactly double. Curt: "We continue to expect quarterly fee-related earnings to increase throughout the year ramping to a run rate of more than $75 million by Q4." Not multiple. Glenn: "we expect that we would reach at least $75 million per quarter on a run rate basis by fourth quarter." "This fundraising momentum is broad-based." "Our latest vintage NGP fund is crossing over $3 billion in commitments. Our most recent US Realty fund moved past $5 billion. And latest vintage in US buyout and Asia buyout have closed on combined $22 billion, while Europe buyout held first closing at over $4 billion just last week." These are absolute numbers, not multiples.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DASH | DoorDash, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2021-12-01 | A |
SNOW · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Frank Slootman repeatedly frames the current state in terms of multiples of the recent past: product revenue “growing 110% year-on-year” (more than doubling), EMEA “up 174%” and Asia-Pacific “219%”, BUILD Summit registrations “three times last year’s”, Snow Day “ 23,000 registrations”, Data Marketplace “grew 41%”, stable edges “more than 130% annual increase”, Powered By Snowflake partners “growing 137% quarter-on-quarter” and product revenue from them “173% year-on-year”.
DASH · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as still sm...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly framing the business in terms of multiples of its recent past: non-restaurant selection "going from 0 nearly 3 years ago to a multibillion-dollar business that's at scale now growing fast"; grocery GOV "has doubled year-on-year"; international growth "at multiples of what we see around the world"; and new verticals accelerating from the prior quarter.
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Management repeatedly frames the current state using multiples of recent past activity: backlog more than doubled (from $5.2B to $11.